Termes de l'échange: de la baisse tendancielle au chaos

Catherine Araujo Bonjean (c.araujo-bonjean@u-clermont1.fr)

No 199701, Working Papers from CERDI

Abstract: In this paper a nonlinear model of commodity prices with endogenous price fluctuations is opposed to the more traditional hypothesis of stochastic price fluctuations around a deterministic trend. After recalling the evolution of world prices of the main agricultural commodities exported by developing countries, the Prebish-Singer hypothesis is assessed through the estimation of linear stochastic models. Then it is shown, using tests of nonlinearity, that series which seem to be trend stationary can in fact be generated by a nonlinear process. These results lead us to elaborate a simple model of decision under risk, which depending of the nature of expections, rational or not, and the producer risk aversion, can generate nonlinear supply and price functions leading to chaos for some values of the parameters.

Pages: 23
Date: 1997
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdi:wpaper:40

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