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Analyse des divergences de chômage entre les pays en transition post-communistes

Ariane Tichit ()

No 200022, Working Papers from CERDI

Abstract: The economic transition in post-communist countries generated a new phenomenon: open unemployment. Since the beginning of the reforms, the official unemployment rates have been very high in the CEECs (Central and Eastern European Countries), compared to the NIS (New Independent States from the Former Soviet Union), where they have stayed at a rate lower than 6%. This article analyses the macro-economic factors responsible for such a divergence in official unemployment rates. The study consist in an econometric estimation of unemployment rates, using panel data on 1991/1992-1996. The first result is that the significant variables are different in the CEECs and in the FSU. In particular, a Phillips curve is rejected in both of groups, as the Okun’s law is valid in the CEECs, but not in the FSU. Moreover, the impact of the reforms is not clear-cut in the CEECS, and is not significant in the FSU. Therefore, the idea that the liberalisations generate unemployment is not comforted by the results of this paper.

Date: 2000
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