The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

Maximilian Auffhammer

Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series from Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley

Abstract: The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.

Keywords: Forecasting; Asymmetric Loss; Energy Intensity; Energy Information Administration; Life Sciences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-12-16
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Journal Article: The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt2ts415ts

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