Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

G Emmanuel Guindon () and David Boisclair

University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education from Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco

Abstract: This paper first estimates the number of tobacco users in 2000 and cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2000 by regions and levels of development and briefly discusses the advantages and disadvantages of estimating tobacco use on the basis of prevalence surveys or aggregate data. Secondly, prevalence and cigarette consumption are projected in the future using several scenarios of changes in tobacco use, as well as different assumptions about population and income growth. The results show that even if all countries immediately implement a comprehensive set of tobacco control policies, the reduction in the number of tobacco users and the total consumption will be gradual. This should give comfort to farmers and others who fear the impact of tobacco control on their livelihoods. It is however, discouraging news for public health, since it implies that the number of tobacco-attributable deaths will continue to rise for decades to come.

Keywords: consumption trends; economics of tobacco; tobacco policy; demand for cigarettes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-03-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/4q57d5vp.pdf;origin=repeccitec (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdl:ctcres:qt4q57d5vp

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education from Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Lisa Schiff ().