Land Use Development Transit Ridership Calculator – Phase 1: Blueprint

Susan Pike , Matthew Bhagat-Conway, Mohammad Hider Kamruzzaman, Naomi Panjaitan, Carlos Trejo-Vera, Joanna Ngo and Olivia Nierva

Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series from Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis

Abstract: Land use development projects around transit may take on many forms, thereby having various effects on transit use in theproject vicinity. One approach, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), is the creation of compact, walkable, pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use projects centered around stations along transit priority corridors (rail, bus rapid transit). There is a needfor research on the quantifiable impacts of land use development projects, and TOD in particular, on transit ridership toguide policy and investments in TOD for future transit plans. This study draws on a comprehensive review of the literatureon ridership outcomes impacted by TOD and related built environment characteristics, transit service characteristics, andsociodemographics. The research team conducted 16 practitioner interviews to contextualize the literature review andgather practitioner input related to ridership estimation for land use development projects around transit. Both theliterature review and interview results are then used to inform a blueprint for the planning and implementation of a TODridership calculator to assist in local planning as well as policy and funding allocation decision-making. The proposedcalculator improves on the current hugely variable methods for estimating outcomes based on land use developmentprojects around transit. The report presents recommendations for the necessary data, potential model formulae, andmodel structures for incorporation into the calculator. The calculator will provide well-supported, transparent, reliablenumbers for local governments and transit operators as well as state agencies and grant application evaluators. View the NCST Project Webpage

Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences; Transit oriented development; literature review; qualitative research; land use and transportation planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09-01
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