Mapping the Potential of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Across Transportation Sectors in California

Lewis PhD Fulton, Madhu Lamichhaine, Timothy PhD Lipman, Daniel PhD Coffee and David PhD Kong

Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series from Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis

Abstract: This report develops a transportation hydrogen roadmap for California projected to 2045, building on previous UC ITS work, in part for the ARCHES hydrogen hub for trucks and ports. This study adds modes such as airports, aircraft, rail systems, and fuel-cell light-duty vehicles. Based on a scenario of high adoption of hydrogen-fueled transport, these modes and sectors would use 1000 tonnes/day of hydrogen by 2035 and 5000 tonnes/day by 2045. To 2035, about 40% of the expected growth occurs in heavy-duty trucking. Another 20% is used by other truck types, about 20% by light-duty vehicles, and 20% by other modes, notably shipping and aviation. These shares remain similar to 2045. Trucking remains the dominant driver of demand. Shipping, aviation, and rail are not anticipated to account for an increasing share of demand in the scenarios in this study. This hydrogen fuel system would support around 6,000 jobs per year. Hydrogen vehicle adoption will depend on strong policy support, coordination of planning and investments, and rapid scale up to reach a hydrogen system that can be self-sustaining, on the order of hundreds of tonnes per day by 2040.

Keywords: Engineering; Hydrogen fuels; Hydrogen refueling; Fuel consumption; Greenhouse gases; Technology adoption; Trucking; Ports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-01
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