Motorization Pathway in China: Case Study of Shanghai

Jason Ni and Donald Hubbard

Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series from Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis

Abstract: In articles about China in both technical journals and the popular press one often finds an implicit assumption that Chinese consumers are on a direct path that will lead to car ownership sometime in the near-to-mid-term future. The purpose of this paper was to determine if there is a “common” pathway toward car ownership and if so identifying the stages of this pathway. The study also tested the validity of an assumed hypothetical motorization direction – from non-motorized to motorized, from low cost to high cost, and from shared to private-owned. The answers to these questions could be used to predict future levels of auto usage based on the number of people currently in different auto precursor stages.

Keywords: UCD-ITS-RR-08-29; Social and Behavioral Sciences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-10-01
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