Persistence of false paradigms in low-power sciences

George A Akerlof and Pascal Michaillat

Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz

Abstract: We develop a model describing how false paradigms may persist, hindering scientific progress. The model features two paradigms, one describing reality better than the other. Tenured scientists display homophily: They favor tenure candidates who adhere to their paradigm. As in statistics, power is the probability (absent any bias) of denying tenure to scientists adhering to the false paradigm. The model shows that because of homophily, when power is low, the false paradigm may prevail. Then, only an increase in power can ignite convergence to the true paradigm. Historical case studies suggest that low power comes either from lack of empirical evidence or from reluctance to base tenure decisions on available evidence.

Keywords: Economics; Applied Economics; Human Society; Clinical Research; Biological Science Disciplines; Evidence-Based Medicine; History; 16th Century; History; 19th Century; History; 20th Century; History; 21st Century; Humans; Models; Theoretical; Research Design; homophily; paradigms; power; scientific progress; tenure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12-26
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Working Paper: Persistence of false paradigms in low-power sciences (2018)
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