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Almost-Objective Uncertainty

Mark Machina ()

University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, UC San Diego

Abstract: Every subjective state space with sufficient (e.g., Euclidean) structure contains almost-objective events that approximate, and in the limit attain, the standard properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether they are expected utility/non-expected utility, state-independent/state-dependent, or probabilistically sophisticated/non-probabilistically sophisticated. These properties include well-defined and unanimously agreed-upon revealed likelihoods that are independent of the realization of other subjective events, probabilistic sophistication over almost-objective acts, and linearity of state-independent or state-dependent expected utility preferences over almost-objective acts and almost-objective mixtures of subjective acts. Many real-world randomization devices are based on events of this form.

Keywords: subjective uncertainty; almost-objective uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-07-01
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Journal Article: Almost-objective uncertainty (2004) Downloads
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