Determinantes da taxa de câmbio real no Brasil: 1971-2002

Marco Flávio Resende and Giordano Bruno Braz de Pinho Matos

Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG from Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Abstract: The theoretical and empirical international trade literature suggests that there is long-term valuation/devaluation of the real exchange rate in the developed/undeveloped economies. We argue that the real exchange rate is affected by: i) intercountry differentials of the services sector development; and, ii) non-neutral characteristic of the international financial system, demonstrated in the Post-Keynesian approach. An equation for the Brazilian real exchange rate was estimated in this paper (1971-2002) and the international liquidity variable and a proxy variable for the differentials of the services sector development were included in the equation. The econometric procedures were based on the Engle-Granger and Johansen methods. The results do not reject the hypothesis put forward in this paper.

Keywords: real exchange rate; purchasing-power parity; international liquidity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E12 F31 F37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2005-03
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