Uma reavaliação dos níveis da fecundidade estimados pela técnica P/F de Brass Brasil e grandes regiões: censos demográficos de 1980, 1991 e 2000

Denise Marques and José Aberto Carvalho
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Denise Marques: Fundação João Pinheiro
José Aberto Carvalho: Cedeplar-UFMG

No 576, Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG from Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Abstract: Since the 1970s, the age specific fertility rate of women with 15 -19 years old has growth sustainably. Differently from 2000s, when the age specific fertility rate of women with 15 -19 years old ( ), in Brazil, declined about 30%. This fact could also compromise the use of the traditional Brass P/F technique to correct the reference period error of the data in the declaration of current fertility. In this case, the error would be due to “lack”, since the cumulative current fertility until the age group 20-24 years (F2) would be overestimated and the quotient between P2/F2, underestimated as an indicator of the period error of reference. However, as emphasized by Carvalho (1982), overestimation would not be significant due to the small increase in adolescent fertility. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present an alternative that minimizes the impact of the growth of the specific fertility rates of women with 15 -19 years old, in Brazil and major regions, between 1970 and 2000, over the estimates of the fertility function through traditional Brass P/F technique, and to estimate the probable relative errors in the estimates by the increase in adolescent fertility. The results corroborate the conclusions of Carvalho (1982), showing that the error, due to “lack”, in the TFTs’ estimates was very small, reinforcing the usefulness of the technique, even in conditions of non-constant adolescent fertility.

Keywords: Revaluation; Brass P/F technique, adolescent fertility; Brazil. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2018-03
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