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Projeção dos impactos econômicos regionais do desastre de Mariana-MG

Thiago Simonato, Edson Domingues () and Aline Magalhaes
Additional contact information
Thiago Simonato: Cedeplar-UFMG
Aline Magalhaes: Cedeplar-UFMG

No 586, Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG from Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Abstract: The large-scale economic damage and losses caused by disasters have attracted the attention of specialists who are studying ways of modeling that kind of impacts. In face of the deep losses and damages caused by the disaster in Mariana, on November 5th, 2015, this work aims to project the main regional economic impacts of the event. The main contribution is to provide methodology and results that will collaborate in the evaluation of the economic effects of the disaster. To do so, we have developed a dynamic model of Computable General Equilibrium, especially built for municipalities directly and indirectly affected by the disaster, in order to capture the regional economic impacts in the period from 2016 to 2020. The results indicate that, generally, the five-year post disaster were insufficient for the retake of production, family consumption, employment, investment and trade, even in the event of the resumption of the total Mariana production in 2018. In addition, the results suggest a great interdependence in the absorption of negative impacts by the regions along the Doce river

Keywords: Mariana Disaster; General Computable Equilibrium; Economics of Disaster; Regional Economics. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 Q51 R13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 61 pages
Date: 2018-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
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