The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: A simulation of the impact on bilateral flows

Jose Blanes and Juliette Milgram Baleix

No E2006/23, Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces from Centro de Estudios Andaluces

Abstract: We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.

Keywords: Liberalisation; EU; Morocco; Free Trade Area; Tariff; Immigration; gravity equation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F13 F14 F15 F17 F22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cea:doctra:e2006_23

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