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A Brief History of Hyperinflation in Argentina

Emilio Ocampo

No 787, CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. from Universidad del CEMA

Abstract: A fiscal deficit of 8.5% of GDP, limited access to credit locally and internationally, country risk premiums at default levels and money supply growing at 80% annually, have led some analysts to predict that Argentina might be heading into a “3-digit modern hyperinflation.” Although this opinion is not widely held, the consensus inflation forecast for 2021 is 47%, a level significantly below any definition of hyperinflation but high by global standards (above the 98th percentile). Even more worrisome is the fact that over the last decade inflation has shown a persistent upward trend and since January 2019 has averaged 45%. Given all of the above, it is worthwhile investigating when Argentina experienced hyperinflation and why. This paper attempts to answer the first part of this question. According to a widely accepted view there was only one hyperinflationary episode between 1989 and 1990. This paper argues that Argentina experienced four hyperinflationary episodes that were part of a long-term cycle that started in 1945.

Keywords: Argentina; Inflation; Extreme Inflation; Hyperinflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 N16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2021-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
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