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Nueva Evidencia sobre la Relación entre Riesgo Argentino y Actividad Económica 1986-2019

Jorge Avila ()

No 801, CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. from Universidad del CEMA

Abstract: Entre 1986 y 2003 la prima de riesgo argentino era capaz de explicar, prácticamente sola, el ciclo económico argentino. Con el paso del tiempo, la prima fue perdiendo su poder explicativo hasta perderlo por completo entre 2011 y 2019. En el ínterin, un fuerte aumento del gasto público habría provocado un cambio de régimen. Investigamos la pérdida de poder explicativo de la prima y el surgimiento de los términos de intercambio y el gasto público como nuevas variables explicativas del ciclo. E intentamos responder dos preguntas: ¿por qué perdió la prima su poder explicativo? y ¿por qué se estancó la economía argentina entre 2011 y 2019? / Between 1986 and 2003 the Argentine risk premium was able to explain, almost alone, the Argentine business cycle. As time went by, the premium lost gradually its explanatory power till losing it all between 2011 and 2019. Meanwhile, a huge increase in public expenditure might have triggered a regime change. We investigate the loss of explanatory power of the Argentine premium and the emergence of the terms of trade and public expenditure as additional explanatory variables of the business cycle. And we attempt to answer two questions: why did the premium lose its power? and why did the Argentine economy stagnate between 2011 and 2019?

JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2021-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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