Potential Adoption and Economic Impact of Drought-Tolerant HB4 Soybeans in Argentina

Claudio Dunan, Marcos Gallacher, Daniel Lema and Ignacio Pace

No 882, CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. from Universidad del CEMA

Abstract: We evaluate potential adoption of drought tolerant HB4 technology in soybeans. Empirical analysis focuses on Argentine agriculture. The following two-step approach is used. First, a choice experiment is carried out to estimate average willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the HB4 technology. Average WTP is estimated at 145kg/ha of soybean grain, equivalent to 5% of the average soybean yield in Argentina, and approximately 8 % of per-hectare direct soybean production costs (excluding harvest). WTP varies among regions, being 26% higher for farmers in regions with yield gaps (actual vs. potential yield) above 20% compared to farmers in regions with yield gaps below 20%. WTP results allow an estimate of the minimum rateof-return demanded by farmers for adoption of the HB4 technology. In the second stage, county-level potential adoption of the technology is evaluated as a function of seed price charged by the developer and required rate-of return by producers. Under alternative adoption scenarios, results show that the HB4 technology has the potential to result in output increases ranging from 1.4 to 3.8 million tons, equivalent to 3 – 7 percent of aggregate soybean production.

Keywords: biotechnology; contingent valuation; willingness to pay; technology adoption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q12 Q13 Q16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2024-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cem:doctra:882

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