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Aggregate and Regional Disagggregate Fluctuations (Now published in Empirical Economics (1996), vol.21, no.1, pp.137-159.)

Danny Quah

STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series from Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE

Abstract: This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state - regardless of which it happens to be - contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, the better picture might be one of a "wave" of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy

Keywords: aggregate disturbance; business cycle; distribution dynamics; regional fluctuation; stochastic kernel. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-08
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cep:stiecm:290

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