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The Effectiveness of EU Export Bans on Military Goods

Lisa Scheckenhofer, Feodora Teti, David Torun and Joschka Wanner

No 80, EconPol Policy Brief from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: Key MessagesEU military export bans in 2022-23 were less effective due to gaps in the sanction regimeOnce these gaps were closed, direct EU exports to Russia ceased, but sanctions were circumvented via indirect routesExport bans raised trade costs by only 19 percent, far below the prohibitive levels implied by a fully enforced banStronger enforcement and political pressure on intermediary countries in early 2024 reduced exports to eight percent of pre-war levelComprehensive enforcement can substantially constrain Russiaʼs access to critical inputs

Date: 2026
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