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On the Robustness of the Balance Statistics with respect to Nonresponse

Christian Seiler

No 126, ifo Working Paper Series from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: Business cycle indicators based on the balance statistics are a widely used method to monitor the actual economic situation. In contrast to official data, indicators from business surveys are early available and typically not revised after their first publication. But as surveys can be in general affected by distortions through the response behaviour, these indicators can also be biased. In addition, time-dependent nonresponse patterns can produce even more complex forms of biased results. This paper examines a framework which kind of nonresponse patterns lead to biases and decreases in performance. We perform an extensive Monte Carlo study to analyse their effects on the indicators. Our analyses show that these indicators are extremely stable towards selection biases.

Keywords: Business survey; Monte Carlo study; nonresponse (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C81 C83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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