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New Evidence on the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area

Sascha Möhrle and Sascha Möhrle ()

No 337, ifo Working Paper Series from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: This paper examines the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area based on data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis shows that the overall distribution of medium- and long-term inflation forecasts has changed considerably following the global financial crisis. Moreover, micro level expectations of professional forecasters are found to be sensitive to short-term economic developments. These patterns suggest that euro area inflation expectations are significantly less anchored to the ECB’s definition of price stability in recent years compared to the pre-crisis period.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; anchoring; euro area; ECB; financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
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