Realized Volatility Risk

David Allen, Michael McAleer and Marcel Scharth ()

No CARF-F-197, CARF F-Series from Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

Abstract: In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly gaussian, this unpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Carefully modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility (DARV) model, which incorporates the important fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks.

Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2009-12, Revised 2010-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-bec, nep-ets, nep-fmk, nep-for, nep-mst and nep-rmg
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/old/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/204.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Realized Volatility Risk (2013)
Working Paper: Realized volatility risk (2013)
Working Paper: Realized Volatility Risk (2010)
Working Paper: REALIZED VOLATILITY RISK (2010)
Working Paper: Realized Volatility Risk (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf197

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