Dating and Marriage during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan

Asako Chiba, Naoki Maezono and Taisuke Nakata
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Asako Chiba: The University of Tokyo
Naoki Maezono: The University of Tokyo
Taisuke Nakata: The University of Tokyo

No CARF-F-609, CARF F-Series from Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

Abstract: We conduct a novel survey of dating and marriage behaviors to better understand the persistent drop in marriage in Japan since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In our survey, we ask participants about their personal relationship histories, which allows us to construct the time series of transition probabilities between being (i) single, (ii) unmarried with a partner, and (iii) married. We find that a single person has become less likely to find a dating partner and that an unmarried person with a dating partner has become more likely to get married since the pandemic. Our analysis highlights the importance of adopting policies that encourage relationship formation if the government would like to slow down the decline in marriage.

Pages: 24
Date: 2025-12
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