Daily Inflation Expectations in Japan around the Time of Regime Change

Taisuke Nakata, Yoshiyuki Nakazono and Kento Tango
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Taisuke Nakata: The University of Tokyo
Yoshiyuki Nakazono: Yokohama City University
Kento Tango: Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

No CARF-F-624, CARF F-Series from Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

Abstract: We analyze how household inflation expectations respond to macroeconomic news using a daily survey in Japan in 2023-24, around the transition from a low- to high-inflation regime. The responses of inflation expectations vary widely across news events. responses of inflation expectations to news are sometimes correlated with surprise components of the news implied by private-sector inflation forecasts or financial markets. Long-run inflation expectations are no less responsive to inflation data releases—but are less responsive to monetary policy announcements—than short-run inflation expectations.

Pages: 38
Date: 2026-04
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