Revisiting exchange rate predictability: Does machine learning help?

Uluc Aysun () and Melanie Guldi ()
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Uluc Aysun: University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL
Melanie Guldi: University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL

No 2026-01, Working Papers from University of Central Florida, Department of Economics

Abstract: We revisit the exchange-rate predictability puzzle by asking whether standard, widely used machine-learning (ML) algorithms convincingly improve exchange rate forecasting once evaluation is disciplined and implementation is made robust. Using monthly data from January 1986 to February 2025, we study US dollar to British pound as the baseline case (in both levels and monthly percent changes). We compare five ML methods -- random forests, neural networks, LASSO, gradient boosting, and linear support-vector classification -- against canonical benchmarks (random walk and ARIMA) in a rolling one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecasting design. To mitigate sensitivity to stochastic estimation, we average forecasts across multiple random seeds and assess performance using RMSE and Diebold-Mariano tests. We find that ML does not improve level forecasts and typically underperforms ARIMA. For exchange-rate changes, ML methods consistently outperform the random-walk benchmark, but only neural networks -- under a specific design -- reliably beat ARIMA. A theory-based UIP/PPP filtering approach improves accuracy for both ML and univariate methods, yet does not change the overall ranking. Extensive robustness checks across windows, currencies, frequencies, and tuning choices confirm that ML’s advantages are limited and fragile relative to conventional univariate benchmarks.

Keywords: Machine learning; exchange rates; forecasting; theoretical filtering; random walk; ARIMA. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 F31 F37 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 Pages
Date: 2026-01
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