EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Estimating the Effects of Forward Guidance in Rational Expectations Models

Richard Harrison ()

No 1429, Discussion Papers from Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)

Abstract: Simulations of forward guidance in rational expectations models should be assessed using the “modest interventions” framework introduced by Eric Leeper and Tao Zha. That is, the estimated effects of a policy intervention should be considered reliable only if that intervention is unlikely to trigger a revision in private sector beliefs about the way that policy will be conducted. I show how to constrain simulations of forward guidance to ensure that they are regarded as modest policy interventions and illustrate the technique using a medium-scale DSGE model estimated on US data. I find that, in many cases, experiments that generate the large responses of macroeconomic variables that many economists deem implausible – the so-called “forward guidance puzzle” – would not be viewed as modest policy interventions by the agents in the model. Those experiments should therefore be treated with caution, since they may prompt agents to believe that there has been a change in the monetary policy regime that is not accounted for within the model. More reliable results can be obtained by constraining the experiment to be a modest policy intervention. The quantitative effects on macroeconomic variables are more plausible in these cases.

Date: 2014-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Discussio ... MDP2014-29-Paper.pdf First version, 2014 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models (2015) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1429

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Martin Hannon ().

 
Page updated 2020-09-16
Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1429