The Dark Corners of the Labor Market
No 1603, Discussion Papers from Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
Standard models predict that episodes of high unemployment are followed by recoveries. This paper shows, by contrast, that a large shock may set the economy on a path towards very high unemployment, with no recovery in sight. First, I estimate a reduced-form model of flows in the U.S. labor market, allowing for the possibility of multiple steady states. Next, I estimate a non-linear search and matching model, in which multiplicity of steady states may arise due to skill losses upon unemployment, following Pissarides (1992). In both cases, estimates imply a stable steady state with around 5 percent unemployment and an unstable one with around 10 percent unemployment. The search and matching model can explain observed job finding rates remarkably well, due to its strong endogenous persistence mechanism.
Keywords: Unemployment; Multiple Steady States; Non-linear Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-lab and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Discussio ... MDP2016-03-Paper.pdf (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1603
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Discussion Papers from Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Martin Hannon ().