COVID19: Erroneous Modelling and Its Policy Implications

Yinon Bar-On, Tatiana Baron, Ofer Cornfeld, Ron Milo and Eran Yashiv ()
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Yinon Bar-On: Weizmann Institute of Science
Ofer Cornfeld: BFI
Ron Milo: Weizmann Institute of Science

No 2030, Discussion Papers from Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)

Abstract: Research in Economics on COVID19 typically posits an economy subject to a model of epidemiological dynamics. We place this model on the foundations of an epidemiological analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission timescales. We formulate a full model with both epidemiologically based and clinically based parameterization. Doing so, we are able to study the dynamic properties of the epidemic. We show that there is often serious mis-specification of the model, erroneously characterizing a relatively slow-moving disease, thereby distorting the policymaker decisions. This leads to a higher death toll and potentially also to higher loss of output.

Keywords: epidemiological dynamics; COVID19; transmission timescales; optimal policy; public health; disease dynamics and scale; misspecification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H12 I12 I18 J17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2020-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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https://www.lse.ac.uk/CFM/assets/pdf/CFM-Discussio ... MDP2020-30-Paper.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: COVID-19: Erroneous Modelling and Its Policy Implications (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2030

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