Scenarios for Future Global Growth to 2050

Charles Kenny and Zachary Gehan

No 634, Working Papers from Center for Global Development

Abstract: We develop scenarios for the shape of the global economy in 2050 building on a simple regression of the historic relationship between current income and lagged income, demographic features, climate, and education, using the coefficients to develop a “central” forecast and error terms to set high and low bounds on country outcomes. Scenarios examine combinations of low and high outcomes for different country groupings. “Central” forecasts suggest slowing per capita growth rates for high income countries as well as many upper middle income countries including China, with continued global income convergence. Scenario exercises suggest the potential for considerable variation in outcomes including global share of the economy and voting power in international institutions.

Keywords: economic forecasts; global growth; international governance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E66 F01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2023-03-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cgd:wpaper:634

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