EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Security Transitions

Thiemo Fetzer, Oliver Vanden Eynde and Austin L. Wright
Additional contact information
Austin L. Wright: Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago

CAGE Online Working Paper Series from Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

Abstract: How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent largescale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. We find that the initial security transfer to Afghan forces is marked by a significant, sharp and timely decline in insurgent violence. This effect reverses with the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions.

Keywords: Counterinsurgency; Civil Conflict; Public Goods Provision JEL Classification: D72; D74; L23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/c ... /383-2018_fetzer.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: Security Transitions (2018) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cge:wacage:383

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CAGE Online Working Paper Series from Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jane Snape ().

 
Page updated 2019-11-21
Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:383