Time-Varying Risk Premium In Large Cross-Sectional Equidity Datasets
Patrick Gagliardini (),
Elisa Ossola () and
Olivier Scaillet ()
No 11-40, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series from Swiss Finance Institute
We develop an econometric methodology to infer the path of risk premia from large unbalanced panel of individual stock returns. We estimate the time-varying risk premia implied by conditional linear asset pricing models where the conditioning includes instruments common to all assets and asset specific instruments. The estimator uses simple weighted two-pass cross-sectional regressions, and we show its consistency and asymptotic normality under increasing cross-sectional and time series dimensions. We address consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance, and testing for asset pricing restrictions induced by the no-arbitrage assumption in large economies. The empirical illustration on returns for about ten thousands US stocks from July 1964 to December 2009 shows that conditional risk premia are large and volatile in crisis periods. They exhibit large positive and negative strays from standard unconditional estimates and follow the macroeconomic cycles. The asset pricing restrictions are rejected for the usual unconditional four-factor model capturing market, size, value and momentum effects.
Keywords: large panel; factor model; risk premium; asset pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C13 C23 C51 C52 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Working Paper: Time-varying risk premium in large cross-sectional equity datasets (2015)
Working Paper: Time-Varying Risk Premium In Large Cross-Sectional Equidity Datasets (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1140
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