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The effects of disasters on income mobility: Bootstrap inference and measurement error simulations

Espen Villanger ()

No WP 2003:6, CMI Working Papers from CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway

Abstract: We evaluate the impact of disasters on income mobility by drawing on "natural experiments". While the poor have a much higher probability of remaining poor when entering a crisis compared to normal times, there is also a negative effect in the year after. Richer households seem to be unaffected. A simple bootstrap method is proposed to facilitate statistical inference for mobility matrices. Also, we simulate measurement error to illustrate its magnitude on these matrices. Small errors induce a substantial downward bias of the probability of remaining poor, while comp arisons across states seem more robust, which is promising for impact analysis.

Keywords: Income; mobility; Effects; of; disasters; Bootstrap; Measurement; error; Simulations; Natural; experiments; Control; group; Treatment; group; Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2003
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