EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?

Ryan Oprea, David Porter, Chris Hibbert (), Robin Hanson and Dorina Tila ()

Working Papers from Chapman University, Economic Science Institute

Abstract: We study experimental markets where privately informed traders exchange simple assets, and where uninformed third parties are asked to forecast the values of these assets, guided only by market prices. Although prices only partially aggregate information, they significantly improve the forecasts of third parties. In a second treatment, a portion of traders are given preferences over the forecasts made by observers. Although we find evidence that these traders attempt to manipulate prices in order to influence the beliefs of observers, we find no evidence that observers make less accurate forecasts as a result.

Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.chapman.edu/ESI/wp/CanManipulatorsMisleadMarketObservers.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chu:wpaper:08-01

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Chapman University, Economic Science Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Megan Luetje ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-30
Handle: RePEc:chu:wpaper:08-01