Does Trade Exposure Explain Antiglobalization Votes?

Antoine Bouët, Anthony Edo and Charlotte Emlinger

Working Papers from CEPII research center

Abstract: We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it.

Keywords: Voting; Trade; Immigration; Political Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-int and nep-pol
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Working Paper: Does Trade Exposure Explain Anti-Globalization Votes? (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-12

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