The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on public finance

Kevin Moran and Dalibor Stevanovic

CIRANO Papers from CIRANO

Abstract: Empirical evidence for Canada and Quebec Over the past few decades, the Canadian economy has faced a series of macroeconomic shocks of various origins and types: the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, commodity price fluctuations, the COVID-19 pandemic, periods of high geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid monetary tightening aimed at containing inflation. These episodes have profoundly affected macroeconomic conditions and posed significant challenges to public finances. In this study, the authors provide an empirical assessment of the effects of a series of macroeconomic shocks on key economic and fiscal aggregates in Canada. Their analyses highlight the need for a fiscal management strategy that is sensitive to external macroeconomic conditions and sources of uncertainty. → Read the article in PERSPECTIVES → Read the full report Empirical evidence for Canada and Quebec Au cours des dernières décennies, l’économie canadienne a été confrontée à une succession de chocs macroéconomiques d’origines et de natures variées : crise financière mondiale de 2008-2009, fluctuations des prix des matières premières, pandémie de COVID-19, périodes de forte incertitude géopolitique et resserrement monétaire rapide visant à contenir l’inflation. Ces épisodes ont profondément affecté les conditions macroéconomiques et posé d’importants défis aux finances publiques. Dans cette étude, les auteurs proposent une évaluation empirique des effets d’une série de chocs macroéconomiques sur les principaux agrégats économiques et budgétaires au Canada. Leurs analyses soulignent la nécessité d’une stratégie de gestion budgétaire sensible aux conditions macroéconomiques externes et aux sources d’incertitude. → Lire l'article de la revue PERSPECTIVES → Lire le rapport complet

Date: 2026-03-13
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