Analysis of Crossover and Strategic Voting

Michael R. Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler

No 1019, Working Papers from California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences

Abstract: We undertake the analysis of primary elections from 1980 through 1996 using both academic individual level survey data, media exit-polls, and aggregate election returns on a county by county basis. We come to the following conclusions: 1. there is very little crossover voting in general in United States primaries; 2. the difference in the amount of crossover voting between states with open primaries and closed primaries is not substantively large; 3. the amount of strategic behavior on the part of voters is extremely small.

Date: 1997-09
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