Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device

Jan Filáček and Branislav Saxa

Working Papers from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

Abstract: Do private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bank’s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.

Keywords: Central bank; coordination; forecast. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E37 E47 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2010/13

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