Web Reviews as a New Leading Indicator for Nowcasting Travel Expenditure in Balance of Payments Statistics

Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova, Jan Bruha and Petr Sterba

Working Papers from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel travel performance indicator derived from tourist reviews available online, utilizing text mining techniques. The time series generated is integrated as an explanatory variable into a small-scale empirical model of travel revenue and expenditure in the Czech Republic's balance of payments. The signiï¬ cance of online reviews for nowcasting is validated through various machine learning algorithms. The study also addresses empirical challenges, including trends in review data, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and occasional methodological changes in ofï¬ cial statistical series, and outlines strategies to overcome these obstacles. The ï¬ ndings suggest that the proposed model is a valuable addition to the Czech National Bank's nowcasting framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the ï¬ rst study to combine text analysis with nowcasting of a BoP item, speciï¬ cally travel services.

Keywords: Balance of payments; text mining; travel services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C83 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11
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