Smooth and Abrupt Dynamics in Financial Volatility: the MS-MEM-MIDAS

L. Scaffidi Domianello, Giampiero Gallo () and Edoardo Otranto

Working Paper CRENoS from Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia

Abstract: In this paper we remark that the evolution of the realized volatility is characterized by a combination between high–frequency dynamics and a smoother persistent dynamics evolving at a lower–frequency. We suggest a new Multiplicative Error Model which combines the mixed frequency features of a MIDAS with Markovian dynamics. When estimated in–sample on the realized kernel volatility of the S&P500 index, this model dominates other simpler specifications, especially when monthly aggregated realized volatility is used. The same pattern is confirmed in the out–of–sample forecasting performance which suggests that adding an abrupt change in the average level of volatility better helps in tracking extreme episodes of volatility and a relative quick absorption of the shocks.

Keywords: realized volatility; Multiplicative Error Model; MIDAS; markov switching; Short– and Long–Run Components (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-rmg
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Related works:
Journal Article: Smooth and Abrupt Dynamics in Financial Volatility: The MS‐MEM‐MIDAS (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202205

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