Long-term Employment and Growth Under Energy Transition in Colombia

Juana Piñeros Ruíz
Additional contact information
Juana Piñeros Ruíz: Universidad de los Andes

No 2026-23, Documentos CEDE from Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE

Abstract: The energy transition entails a gradual phase-out of carbon-intensive industries alongside the expansion of renewable energy production and consumption. Developing economies are central to this process: while they hold substantial renewable energy potential, they remain particularly vulnerable as they must simultaneously secure economic growth and employment while reducing reliance on fossil production. This paper adapts the International Labour Organization’s Green Jobs Assessment Model (GJAM) to assess the impacts of energy transition scenarios in Colombia, a middle-income country with strong dependence on fossils exports. Through an input–output analysis the study evaluates scenarios of substituting fossil fuels exports, shifting domestic consumption patterns towards electricity, and the expansion of sustainable energy alternatives. The results suggest that transition policies towards domestic adjustments in energy production and consumption could compensate the negative income and employment effects of a drop in fossils global demand, when done at the same time. Compared to a baseline scenario, the energy transition may have positive long-term effects on the economy on 2035, creating up to 1,218,206 jobs (4%) and increasing in 0.2% the economic growth.

Keywords: Green jobs; energy transition; top-down approach; industry phase-out; Colombia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J24 O13 Q52 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43
Date: 2026-04
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Documentos CEDE - Universidad de los Andes

Downloads: (external link)
https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/handle/1992/78400/dcede202623.pdf
https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/handle/1992/78400/dcede202623.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000089:022458

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documentos CEDE from Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Universidad De Los Andes-Cede ().