Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach (Corrected version)

Jesus Otero and Costas Milas

No 3232, Borradores de Investigación from Universidad del Rosario

Abstract: We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a non-linear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs. ********************************************************************** En este documento se analiza la relación a largo plazo entre la tasa de cambio oficial y paralela de Colombia, bajo dos régimenes distintos, un periódo de crawling-peg y un periódo más flexible de banda cambiaria. Se analiza el proceo de ajuste a corto plazo de la tasa paralela bajo contextos lineal y no lineal. Como conclusión se detectó que el cambio de régimen de tasa de cambio no afectó la relación a largo plazo entre la tasa de cambio oficial y la paralela, pero sí modificó la relación a corto plazo. Un método de ajuste no lineal parece ser apropiado para formalizar el comportamiento en el primer periodo, principalmente debido a los estrictos controles externos que generan distorsiones en el proceso de retorno al equilibrio, cuando un desequilibrio ha ocurrido.

Keywords: Parallel market; cointegration; non-linear error correction models; Colombia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F31 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26
Date: 2000-12-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000091:003232

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