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Fear to Vote Explosions, Salience, and Elections

Juan Vargas, Miguel E. Purroy (), Felipe Coy (), Sergio Perilla () and Mounu Prem

No 20801, Documentos de Trabajo from Universidad del Rosario

Abstract: Criminal groups use violence strategically to manipulate the behavior of vic- tims and bystanders. At the same time, violence is a stimulus that causes fear, which also shapes people’s reactions. Taking advantage of the randomness in the timing of antiperson- nel landmine accidents in Colombia, as well as their coordinates relative to those of voting polls, we identify the effect of violence-induced fear (independent from intentions) on elec- toral behavior. Fortuitous landmine explosions reduce political participation. We further disentangle whether the type of fear caused by landmine explosions responds to an informa- tion channel (whereby people learn about the risk of future victimization) or by the salience of the explosion (which causes individuals to make impulsive decisions, driven by survival considerations), and show evidence in favor of the latter. While the turnout reduction takes place across the ideological spectrum, we document that the explosions induce a shift in the political preferences of individuals who do vote. These findings point to worrisome potential consequences for the consolidation of democracies in places affected by conflict.

Keywords: Landmine explosions; conflict; voting; salience; fear (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D74 P48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 92
Date: 2023-07-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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