El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la econom�a colombiana

Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, Aaron Garavito, David Camilo L�pez and Enrique Montes-Uribe
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: David Camilo López ()

No 13829, Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica

Abstract: La econom�a colombiana se ha visto impactada por la fuerte ca�da en la cotizaci�n internacional del petr�leo, la cual se caracteriz� por ser sorpresiva, acelerada y de magnitud considerable. Seg�n los analistas, este choque podr�a ser persistente y extenderse por varios a�os. Sumado a lo anterior, el volumen de producci�n de hidrocarburos en el territorio nacional tambi�n podr�a caer, como resultado de la menor inversi�n en el sector ante los bajos precios del crudo. El presente documento hace un an�lisis descriptivo del choque petrolero reciente y de sus determinantes, as� como de sus implicaciones para la econom�a colombiana. A la fecha, el desplome de los precios ha afectado los t�rminos de intercambio del pa�s y con ello el ingreso nacional, impactando las cuentas externas y la tasa de cambio, las finanzas p�blicas, la confianza de los mercados y el riesgo pa�s. Lo anterior se ha traducido en una significativa desaceleraci�n de la actividad econ�mica. La respuesta de pol�tica econ�mica ha sido coherente con un s�lido marco institucional previamente establecido, que ha propiciado un ajuste ordenado de la econom�a a las nuevas circunstancias externas. Entre las caracter�sticas m�s importantes de dicho marco de pol�tica se destacan un r�gimen de inflaci�n objetivo con flexibilidad cambiaria, una regla fiscal para el Gobierno Nacional y una pol�tica macro-prudencial que aboga por la estabilidad financiera. ****** The Colombian economy has been hit by the sharp fall of international oil prices, which was characterized for being unexpected, sudden and of considerable magnitude. According to analysts, this shock could be persistent and last for several years. On top of that, the volume of oil production in the country could also decrease due to a fall of investment in the sector in the context of lower oil prices. This document aims to provide a descriptive analysis of the recent oil shock, its determinants, and their implications for the Colombian economy. To date, falling oil prices have deteriorated the country's terms of trade and thus, its national income. Other key variables such as the current account, the exchange rate, the public finance, market�s confidence and the country risk premium have also been affected. As a result, a significant economic slowdown is taking place. The economic policy response has been coherent with a sound institutional framework previously established, which has encouraged an orderly adjustment to the new external circumstances. Among the key elements of such framework it is worth mentioning an inflation-targeting scheme with flexible exchange rate, a fiscal rule for the central Government, and a macro-prudential policy aiming at preserving financial stability.

Keywords: Petr�leo; sector externo; ingresos fiscales; t�rminos de intercambio. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 H62 H63 Q30 Q31 Q34 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 63
Date: 2015-10-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000094:013829

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