Inflaci�n de costos: las devaluaciones de los a�os cincuenta y el brote populista de 1963 / Cost-push inflation: the devaluations of the fifties and the 1963 populist outbreak

Javier G. G�mez-Pineda
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Javier G. Gómez-Pineda

No 14204, Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica

Abstract: El art�culo estudia la inflaci�n en Colombia durante 1951-1963 de acuerdo al enfoque de presi�n de costos (cost push inflation). El art�culo propone un modelo en el que la inflaci�n responde a los aumentos salariales, la devaluaci�n y la inflaci�n de alimentos. El modelo incorpora una ecuaci�n para la inflaci�n de alimentos en funci�n del fen�meno El Ni�o-Oscilaci�n del Sur. Entre los resultados se argumenta que los ajustes masivos en los salarios y la tasa de cambio actuaron como importantes fuerzas expansivas de la inflaci�n durante los programas de estabilizaci�n y como fuerzas contractivas de la misma durante los prolongados per�odos comprendidos entre los ajustes. Los choques de oferta de alimentos desempe�aron un papel importante en la evoluci�n de la inflaci�n en el corto plazo. El an�lisis lleva a dos principales implicaciones de pol�tica. Primero, la evoluci�n de la inflaci�n en el corto plazo ha sido atribuida por la literatura a los cambios en el crecimiento del dinero, pero el enfoque de inflaci�n de costos ofrece importantes puntos de vista sobre la evoluci�n de la inflaci�n en el corto plazo. Segundo, Colombia no lleg� a la hiperinflaci�n porque no persisti� en el objetivo de aumentar los salarios reales. En vez de esto, permiti� aumentos de precios y renunci� a regla de indexaci�n de los salarios. En consecuencia la inflaci�n se mantuvo flexible y baj� r�pidamente.****** The article studies Colombia�s inflation during 1951�1963 under the cost-push approach. In the model, inflation follows wage and exchange rate adjustments, as well as food inflation supply shocks. The model incorporates an equation for food inflation defined on El Ni�o Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The results show that massive adjustments in wages and in the exchange rate acted as major inflationary forces during the stabilization programs of the post war period and as disinflationary forces during the prolonged periods in between these programs. Food inflation supply shocks were important drivers of inflation in the short term. Two main policy implications arise. First, the evolution of inflation in the short term has been attributed in the literature to changes in the growth of money, but the cost-push approach provides important insights about the evolution of inflation in the short term. Second, Colombia did not experience hyperinflation because the authorities did not maintain the real wage objective. Instead, the authorities allowed prices to rise and gave up the wage indexation clause. As a consequence, inflation remained flexible and dropped rapidly.

Keywords: Inflaci�n de costos; espiral de precios y salarios; indexaci�n; macroeconom�a del populismo; m�nimo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E52 E58 N1 N16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19
Date: 2016-02-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-mac
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