The road to global economic recovery, 2009

Paul Krugman

No 7119, Revista de Economía del Caribe from Universidad del Norte

Abstract: These document contains three parts: the first part focuses on the lessons that have been learnt from the 2007-2009 crisis and how economic authorities handled the shock suffered in most variables. The conclusion is that Government intervention through fiscal policy is the only wayto offset the weakness of households and firms. Monetary policy on the other hand can help, but it has limits in its ability to become a real source of economic growth. The second part makes a short review on current economic affairs including a discussion on whether the crisis has ended.Krugman accepts that the crisis is over, but he believes that we are still far from an economic expansion. Finally, the article analyzes the economic situation of Latin America and Colombia in particular. It points out that this crisis did not start in our countries and it did not happen because of bad economic policies as it used to happen in previous crisis in emerging economies. The crisis had an impact on these countries because of its effects on trade, commodities and capital flows due to the lower economic activity in developed countries. However we have evidence of strengthin developing countries.Este documento se enfoca inicialmente en las lecciones aprendidas a partir de los sucesos que provocaron la crisis de la economía mundial de los anos 2008-2009 y la forma como se ha manejado por parte de las autoridades económicas en los Estados Unidos y a nivel mundial, planteandola importancia de la intervención del Gobierno y los obstáculos de la política monetaria como fuentes de crecimiento y recuperación en este período. La segunda parte interpreta los acontecimientos actuales y discute la tesis de que Krugman acepta que ya ha habido una salida a lacrisis ocurrida en el verano de 2009, pero todavía estamos lejos de una economía en expansión. Por último el artículo se ocupa de la situación de América Latina y Colombia en particular y senala que esta crisis no surgió de malos manejos económicos sino de los efectos que tuvo sobre el comercio, las materias primas y los flujos de capitales la reducción en la actividad económica en los países del primer mundo. Por el contrario se evidencia una fortaleza en las economías emergentes.

Keywords: Crisis; economic recovery; fiscal policy; monetary policy; emerging economies.Crisis; recuperación; política fiscal; política monetaria; economías emergentes. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E32 E63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2009-11-30
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