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The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza

George Verikios (), Maura Sullivan, Pane Stojanovski, James Giesecke and Gordon Woo

Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers from Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre

Abstract: We analyse the global economic effects of two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence-infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence-low infectiousness event and a low virulence-high infectiousness event. We do this by applying results from a susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological model to a detailed, quarterly computable general equilibrium model. Our findings indicate that global economic activity will be more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. At the regional level, regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy will be affected more strongly than less integrated regions.

Keywords: computable general equilibrium; pandemic influenza; quarterly periodicity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 E37 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-cwa and nep-hea
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Published in Verikios, G., Sullivan, M. Stojanovski, P., Giesecke, J. and G. Woo, (2015), 'Assessing regional risks from pandemic influenza: a scenario analysis', The World Economy, 39: 1225-1255.

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