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Biome composition in deforestation deterrence and GHG emissions in Brazil

Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho and Mark Horridge ()

Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers from Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre

Abstract: We analyze the Brazilian commitments to COP21 under different scenarios, with a general equilibrium model of Brazil developed for land use change and GHG emissions analysis. The model is dynamic, inter-regional and bottom-up, and here distinguishes 16 regions and 6 biomes. We simulate different scenarios of future deforestation, including the halt of illegal deforestation, the restoration of 12Mha of forests, and replacing deforestation in the Amazon biome by deforestation in the Cerrado biome. Our analysis shows that the restoration of 12 Mha of forests would be enough to meet Brazil's 2025 commitments with no other extra GHG savings efforts, but would not meet 2030 commitments. Exchanging deforestation in the Amazon biome for deforestation in the Cerrado biome would seriously compromise the accomplishment of the targets. We note that emissions in the general economy are increasing in Brazil, suggesting that other efforts must be made to meet the COP21 targets.

Keywords: Brazil; deforestation; CO2; Cerrado; Amazon (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D58 E47 Q53 Q54 R14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-env
Date: 2017-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-274

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