General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation
Luc Bauwens () and
No 2006021, CORE Discussion Papers from Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)
The general-to-speciﬁc (GETS) approach to modelling is widely employed in the modelling of economic series, but less so in ﬁnancial volatility modelling due to computational complexity when many explanatory variables are involved. This study proposed a simple way of avoiding this problem and undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the methodology applied to the modelling of weekly exchange rate volatility. Our ﬁndings suggest that GETS speciﬁcations are especially valuable in conditional forecasting, since the speciﬁcation that employs actual values on the uncertain information performs particularly well
Keywords: exchange rate volatility; general to speciﬁc; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Journal Article: General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation (2010)
Working Paper: General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation (2010)
Working Paper: General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation (2008)
Working Paper: General to Specific Modelling of Exchange Rate Volatility: a Forecast Evaluation (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cor:louvco:2006021
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