Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation

Shui-Ki Wan, Cindy Shin-huei Wang () and Chi-Keung Woo
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Shui-Ki Wan: Hong Kong Baptist University

No 2012039, LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE from Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)

Abstract: Total tourist arrivals are the sum of disaggregate subcomponent arrivals by country of origin. We use seven time-series models to assess whether the aggregate approach that directly forecasts the total tourist arrivals outperforms the disaggregate approach that produces the total arrival forecast as an unweighted sum of its subcomponent forecasts. Based on Hong Kong's monthly tourist arrival data, we find (a) the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model outperforms the other non-seasonal and seasonal models under the aggregate approach, and (b) forecast performance can be improved by the disaggregate approach.

Keywords: tourism demand; aggregate and disaggregate approaches; forecast combination; seasonal ARIMA; Holt-Winters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-10-11
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cor:louvco:2012039

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