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The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands

Alex Armstrong (), Nick Draper () and Ed Westerhout ()
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Ed Westerhout: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

CPB Discussion Paper from CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Abstract: This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections, to quantify uncertainties surrounding the consequences of population ageing for Dutch public finances. The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades. However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper quantifies the uncertainties by stochastic simulation.

JEL-codes: C68 H68 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cmp, nep-eec and nep-pub
Date: 2008-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpb:discus:104

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