Predictability and (co-)incidence of labor and health shocks

Emile Cammeraat (), Brinn Hekkelman (), Pim Kastelein and Suzanne Vissers ()
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Emile Cammeraat: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Brinn Hekkelman: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Suzanne Vissers: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

No 453, CPB Discussion Paper from CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Abstract: Setbacks such as dismissal or illness can turn the lives of people upside down. This study shows that such adverse events can be anticipated in advance and that their occurrence is strongly interrelated. These insights suggest that social security policy should consider the fact that vulnerable groups are likely to face multiple difficulties at the same time. Using machine learning techniques and anonymous data on millions of Dutch people, this study maps out the entire probability distribution of a wide range of labor market and health shocks. The degree of inequality in risk exposure across the population is striking. Most people have a low probability of becoming seriously ill or dependent on social benefits, while one percent of people bears up to thirty times more risk compared to the population average. People with a flexible employment contract, low income, little wealth and migration background are overrepresented within this high-risk group.

JEL-codes: C53 H55 I10 J01 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-hea and nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpb:discus:453

DOI: 10.34932/n1bs-qm11

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